Paris Agreement target (°C)
1.5
Paris Agreement target (°C)
2
Monthly global temperature anomalies, HadCRUT5 dataset.
The last observation at the time of computation was 2024-10.
Probability of breaching the 1.5°C and 2°C thresholds based on the HadCRUT5 dataset. The probabilities are calculated using a 20-year moving average following Betts et. al. (2023). The simulation considers 10,000 simulations of 800 months each.
895×3 DataFrame
Row │ Date (month) 1.5°C Threshold 2°C Threshold
│ Dates.Date Float64 Float64
─────┼──────────────────────────────────────────────
1 │ 2006-12-01 0.0 0.0
2 │ 2007-01-01 0.0 0.0
3 │ 2007-02-01 0.0 0.0
4 │ 2007-03-01 0.0 0.0
5 │ 2007-04-01 0.0 0.0
6 │ 2007-05-01 0.0 0.0
7 │ 2007-06-01 0.0 0.0
8 │ 2007-07-01 0.0 0.0
9 │ 2007-08-01 0.0 0.0
10 │ 2007-09-01 0.0 0.0
11 │ 2007-10-01 0.0 0.0
12 │ 2007-11-01 0.0 0.0
13 │ 2007-12-01 0.0 0.0
14 │ 2008-01-01 0.0 0.0
15 │ 2008-02-01 0.0 0.0
16 │ 2008-03-01 0.0 0.0
17 │ 2008-04-01 0.0 0.0
18 │ 2008-05-01 0.0 0.0
19 │ 2008-06-01 0.0 0.0
20 │ 2008-07-01 0.0 0.0
21 │ 2008-08-01 0.0 0.0
22 │ 2008-09-01 0.0 0.0
23 │ 2008-10-01 0.0 0.0
24 │ 2008-11-01 0.0 0.0
25 │ 2008-12-01 0.0 0.0
26 │ 2009-01-01 0.0 0.0
27 │ 2009-02-01 0.0 0.0
28 │ 2009-03-01 0.0 0.0
29 │ 2009-04-01 0.0 0.0
30 │ 2009-05-01 0.0 0.0
31 │ 2009-06-01 0.0 0.0
32 │ 2009-07-01 0.0 0.0
33 │ 2009-08-01 0.0 0.0
34 │ 2009-09-01 0.0 0.0
35 │ 2009-10-01 0.0 0.0
36 │ 2009-11-01 0.0 0.0
37 │ 2009-12-01 0.0 0.0
38 │ 2010-01-01 0.0 0.0
39 │ 2010-02-01 0.0 0.0
40 │ 2010-03-01 0.0 0.0
41 │ 2010-04-01 0.0 0.0
42 │ 2010-05-01 0.0 0.0
43 │ 2010-06-01 0.0 0.0
44 │ 2010-07-01 0.0 0.0
45 │ 2010-08-01 0.0 0.0
46 │ 2010-09-01 0.0 0.0
47 │ 2010-10-01 0.0 0.0
48 │ 2010-11-01 0.0 0.0
49 │ 2010-12-01 0.0 0.0
50 │ 2011-01-01 0.0 0.0
51 │ 2011-02-01 0.0 0.0
52 │ 2011-03-01 0.0 0.0
53 │ 2011-04-01 0.0 0.0
54 │ 2011-05-01 0.0 0.0
55 │ 2011-06-01 0.0 0.0
56 │ 2011-07-01 0.0 0.0
57 │ 2011-08-01 0.0 0.0
58 │ 2011-09-01 0.0 0.0
59 │ 2011-10-01 0.0 0.0
60 │ 2011-11-01 0.0 0.0
61 │ 2011-12-01 0.0 0.0
62 │ 2012-01-01 0.0 0.0
63 │ 2012-02-01 0.0 0.0
64 │ 2012-03-01 0.0 0.0
65 │ 2012-04-01 0.0 0.0
66 │ 2012-05-01 0.0 0.0
67 │ 2012-06-01 0.0 0.0
68 │ 2012-07-01 0.0 0.0
69 │ 2012-08-01 0.0 0.0
70 │ 2012-09-01 0.0 0.0
71 │ 2012-10-01 0.0 0.0
72 │ 2012-11-01 0.0 0.0
73 │ 2012-12-01 0.0 0.0
74 │ 2013-01-01 0.0 0.0
75 │ 2013-02-01 0.0 0.0
76 │ 2013-03-01 0.0 0.0
77 │ 2013-04-01 0.0 0.0
78 │ 2013-05-01 0.0 0.0
79 │ 2013-06-01 0.0 0.0
80 │ 2013-07-01 0.0 0.0
81 │ 2013-08-01 0.0 0.0
82 │ 2013-09-01 0.0 0.0
83 │ 2013-10-01 0.0 0.0
84 │ 2013-11-01 0.0 0.0
85 │ 2013-12-01 0.0 0.0
86 │ 2014-01-01 0.0 0.0
87 │ 2014-02-01 0.0 0.0
88 │ 2014-03-01 0.0 0.0
89 │ 2014-04-01 0.0 0.0
90 │ 2014-05-01 0.0 0.0
91 │ 2014-06-01 0.0 0.0
92 │ 2014-07-01 0.0 0.0
93 │ 2014-08-01 0.0 0.0
94 │ 2014-09-01 0.0 0.0
95 │ 2014-10-01 0.0 0.0
96 │ 2014-11-01 0.0 0.0
97 │ 2014-12-01 0.0 0.0
98 │ 2015-01-01 0.0 0.0
99 │ 2015-02-01 0.0 0.0
100 │ 2015-03-01 0.0 0.0
101 │ 2015-04-01 0.0 0.0
102 │ 2015-05-01 0.0 0.0
103 │ 2015-06-01 0.0 0.0
104 │ 2015-07-01 0.0 0.0
105 │ 2015-08-01 0.0 0.0
106 │ 2015-09-01 0.0 0.0
107 │ 2015-10-01 0.0 0.0
108 │ 2015-11-01 0.0 0.0
109 │ 2015-12-01 0.0 0.0
110 │ 2016-01-01 0.0 0.0
111 │ 2016-02-01 0.0 0.0
112 │ 2016-03-01 0.0 0.0
113 │ 2016-04-01 0.0 0.0
114 │ 2016-05-01 0.0 0.0
115 │ 2016-06-01 0.0 0.0
116 │ 2016-07-01 0.0 0.0
117 │ 2016-08-01 0.0 0.0
118 │ 2016-09-01 0.0 0.0
119 │ 2016-10-01 0.0 0.0
120 │ 2016-11-01 0.0 0.0
121 │ 2016-12-01 0.0 0.0
122 │ 2017-01-01 0.0 0.0
123 │ 2017-02-01 0.0 0.0
124 │ 2017-03-01 0.0 0.0
125 │ 2017-04-01 0.0 0.0
126 │ 2017-05-01 0.0 0.0
127 │ 2017-06-01 0.0 0.0
128 │ 2017-07-01 0.0 0.0
129 │ 2017-08-01 0.0 0.0
130 │ 2017-09-01 0.0 0.0
131 │ 2017-10-01 0.0 0.0
132 │ 2017-11-01 0.0 0.0
133 │ 2017-12-01 0.0 0.0
134 │ 2018-01-01 0.0 0.0
135 │ 2018-02-01 0.0 0.0
136 │ 2018-03-01 0.0 0.0
137 │ 2018-04-01 0.0 0.0
138 │ 2018-05-01 0.0 0.0
139 │ 2018-06-01 0.0 0.0
140 │ 2018-07-01 0.0 0.0
141 │ 2018-08-01 0.0 0.0
142 │ 2018-09-01 0.0 0.0
143 │ 2018-10-01 0.0 0.0
144 │ 2018-11-01 0.0 0.0
145 │ 2018-12-01 0.0 0.0
146 │ 2019-01-01 0.0 0.0
147 │ 2019-02-01 0.0 0.0
148 │ 2019-03-01 0.0 0.0
149 │ 2019-04-01 0.0 0.0
150 │ 2019-05-01 0.0 0.0
151 │ 2019-06-01 0.0 0.0
152 │ 2019-07-01 0.0 0.0
153 │ 2019-08-01 0.0 0.0
154 │ 2019-09-01 0.0 0.0
155 │ 2019-10-01 0.0 0.0
156 │ 2019-11-01 0.0 0.0
157 │ 2019-12-01 0.0 0.0
158 │ 2020-01-01 0.0 0.0
159 │ 2020-02-01 0.0 0.0
160 │ 2020-03-01 0.0 0.0
161 │ 2020-04-01 0.0 0.0
162 │ 2020-05-01 0.0 0.0
163 │ 2020-06-01 0.0 0.0
164 │ 2020-07-01 0.0 0.0
165 │ 2020-08-01 0.0 0.0
166 │ 2020-09-01 0.0 0.0
167 │ 2020-10-01 0.0 0.0
168 │ 2020-11-01 0.0 0.0
169 │ 2020-12-01 0.0 0.0
170 │ 2021-01-01 0.0 0.0
171 │ 2021-02-01 0.0 0.0
172 │ 2021-03-01 0.0 0.0
173 │ 2021-04-01 0.0 0.0
174 │ 2021-05-01 0.0 0.0
175 │ 2021-06-01 0.0 0.0
176 │ 2021-07-01 0.0001 0.0
177 │ 2021-08-01 0.0001 0.0
178 │ 2021-09-01 0.0001 0.0
179 │ 2021-10-01 0.0001 0.0
180 │ 2021-11-01 0.0001 0.0
181 │ 2021-12-01 0.0001 0.0
182 │ 2022-01-01 0.0001 0.0
183 │ 2022-02-01 0.0001 0.0
184 │ 2022-03-01 0.0001 0.0
185 │ 2022-04-01 0.0002 0.0
186 │ 2022-05-01 0.0002 0.0
187 │ 2022-06-01 0.0004 0.0
188 │ 2022-07-01 0.0004 0.0
189 │ 2022-08-01 0.0004 0.0
190 │ 2022-09-01 0.0005 0.0
191 │ 2022-10-01 0.0007 0.0
192 │ 2022-11-01 0.0007 0.0
193 │ 2022-12-01 0.0009 0.0
194 │ 2023-01-01 0.0009 0.0
195 │ 2023-02-01 0.0009 0.0
196 │ 2023-03-01 0.0011 0.0
197 │ 2023-04-01 0.0012 0.0
198 │ 2023-05-01 0.0012 0.0
199 │ 2023-06-01 0.0012 0.0
200 │ 2023-07-01 0.0013 0.0
201 │ 2023-08-01 0.0017 0.0
202 │ 2023-09-01 0.0017 0.0
203 │ 2023-10-01 0.002 0.0
204 │ 2023-11-01 0.0022 0.0
205 │ 2023-12-01 0.0026 0.0
206 │ 2024-01-01 0.003 0.0
207 │ 2024-02-01 0.0035 0.0
208 │ 2024-03-01 0.0039 0.0
209 │ 2024-04-01 0.0041 0.0
210 │ 2024-05-01 0.0052 0.0
211 │ 2024-06-01 0.0057 0.0
212 │ 2024-07-01 0.0062 0.0
213 │ 2024-08-01 0.0066 0.0
214 │ 2024-09-01 0.007 0.0
215 │ 2024-10-01 0.0078 0.0
216 │ 2024-11-01 0.0084 0.0
217 │ 2024-12-01 0.0089 0.0
218 │ 2025-01-01 0.0106 0.0
219 │ 2025-02-01 0.0117 0.0
220 │ 2025-03-01 0.0131 0.0
221 │ 2025-04-01 0.0149 0.0
222 │ 2025-05-01 0.0163 0.0
223 │ 2025-06-01 0.0185 0.0
224 │ 2025-07-01 0.0201 0.0
225 │ 2025-08-01 0.0229 0.0
226 │ 2025-09-01 0.0251 0.0
227 │ 2025-10-01 0.0266 0.0
228 │ 2025-11-01 0.0281 0.0
229 │ 2025-12-01 0.0301 0.0
230 │ 2026-01-01 0.0314 0.0
231 │ 2026-02-01 0.0319 0.0
232 │ 2026-03-01 0.0331 0.0
233 │ 2026-04-01 0.0353 0.0
234 │ 2026-05-01 0.0384 0.0
235 │ 2026-06-01 0.0421 0.0
236 │ 2026-07-01 0.0476 0.0
237 │ 2026-08-01 0.0509 0.0
238 │ 2026-09-01 0.0551 0.0
239 │ 2026-10-01 0.0602 0.0
240 │ 2026-11-01 0.0661 0.0
241 │ 2026-12-01 0.0724 0.0
242 │ 2027-01-01 0.0779 0.0
243 │ 2027-02-01 0.081 0.0
244 │ 2027-03-01 0.0846 0.0
245 │ 2027-04-01 0.0919 0.0
246 │ 2027-05-01 0.0998 0.0
247 │ 2027-06-01 0.1093 0.0
248 │ 2027-07-01 0.117 0.0
249 │ 2027-08-01 0.1251 0.0
250 │ 2027-09-01 0.1363 0.0
251 │ 2027-10-01 0.1459 0.0
252 │ 2027-11-01 0.1546 0.0
253 │ 2027-12-01 0.1644 0.0
254 │ 2028-01-01 0.1755 0.0
255 │ 2028-02-01 0.1858 0.0
256 │ 2028-03-01 0.1974 0.0
257 │ 2028-04-01 0.2081 0.0
258 │ 2028-05-01 0.2213 0.0
259 │ 2028-06-01 0.2337 0.0
260 │ 2028-07-01 0.2483 0.0
261 │ 2028-08-01 0.2633 0.0
262 │ 2028-09-01 0.2772 0.0
263 │ 2028-10-01 0.2896 0.0
264 │ 2028-11-01 0.3044 0.0
265 │ 2028-12-01 0.3172 0.0
266 │ 2029-01-01 0.3311 0.0
267 │ 2029-02-01 0.3442 0.0
268 │ 2029-03-01 0.3509 0.0
269 │ 2029-04-01 0.3615 0.0
270 │ 2029-05-01 0.3761 0.0
271 │ 2029-06-01 0.3909 0.0
272 │ 2029-07-01 0.4044 0.0
273 │ 2029-08-01 0.4194 0.0
274 │ 2029-09-01 0.4327 0.0
275 │ 2029-10-01 0.4433 0.0
276 │ 2029-11-01 0.4535 0.0
277 │ 2029-12-01 0.4617 0.0
278 │ 2030-01-01 0.4691 0.0
279 │ 2030-02-01 0.4749 0.0
280 │ 2030-03-01 0.4816 0.0
281 │ 2030-04-01 0.4877 0.0
282 │ 2030-05-01 0.4978 0.0
283 │ 2030-06-01 0.5117 0.0
284 │ 2030-07-01 0.5237 0.0001
285 │ 2030-08-01 0.5383 0.0001
286 │ 2030-09-01 0.5498 0.0001
287 │ 2030-10-01 0.5642 0.0001
288 │ 2030-11-01 0.5723 0.0001
289 │ 2030-12-01 0.5875 0.0001
290 │ 2031-01-01 0.6024 0.0001
291 │ 2031-02-01 0.6205 0.0001
292 │ 2031-03-01 0.632 0.0001
293 │ 2031-04-01 0.645 0.0001
294 │ 2031-05-01 0.6586 0.0001
295 │ 2031-06-01 0.671 0.0001
296 │ 2031-07-01 0.6803 0.0001
297 │ 2031-08-01 0.6918 0.0001
298 │ 2031-09-01 0.6992 0.0001
299 │ 2031-10-01 0.7071 0.0002
300 │ 2031-11-01 0.7168 0.0002
301 │ 2031-12-01 0.7286 0.0003
302 │ 2032-01-01 0.7381 0.0003
303 │ 2032-02-01 0.7498 0.0003
304 │ 2032-03-01 0.7574 0.0003
305 │ 2032-04-01 0.7669 0.0003
306 │ 2032-05-01 0.7758 0.0004
307 │ 2032-06-01 0.7833 0.0004
308 │ 2032-07-01 0.7913 0.0004
309 │ 2032-08-01 0.7997 0.0004
310 │ 2032-09-01 0.8078 0.0004
311 │ 2032-10-01 0.8133 0.0006
312 │ 2032-11-01 0.8237 0.0006
313 │ 2032-12-01 0.8318 0.0006
314 │ 2033-01-01 0.8383 0.0008
315 │ 2033-02-01 0.8432 0.0008
316 │ 2033-03-01 0.8456 0.0008
317 │ 2033-04-01 0.849 0.0008
318 │ 2033-05-01 0.8526 0.0008
319 │ 2033-06-01 0.8558 0.0008
320 │ 2033-07-01 0.8574 0.0008
321 │ 2033-08-01 0.8583 0.0008
322 │ 2033-09-01 0.8581 0.0008
323 │ 2033-10-01 0.8582 0.0008
324 │ 2033-11-01 0.8577 0.0009
325 │ 2033-12-01 0.8586 0.0009
326 │ 2034-01-01 0.8612 0.001
327 │ 2034-02-01 0.861 0.001
328 │ 2034-03-01 0.8615 0.001
329 │ 2034-04-01 0.8626 0.001
330 │ 2034-05-01 0.8652 0.001
331 │ 2034-06-01 0.8675 0.001
332 │ 2034-07-01 0.8699 0.001
333 │ 2034-08-01 0.8707 0.001
334 │ 2034-09-01 0.8725 0.001
335 │ 2034-10-01 0.8737 0.001
336 │ 2034-11-01 0.876 0.0011
337 │ 2034-12-01 0.88 0.0011
338 │ 2035-01-01 0.8835 0.0012
339 │ 2035-02-01 0.886 0.0012
340 │ 2035-03-01 0.8899 0.0012
341 │ 2035-04-01 0.893 0.0012
342 │ 2035-05-01 0.8955 0.0012
343 │ 2035-06-01 0.8981 0.0012
344 │ 2035-07-01 0.9015 0.0012
345 │ 2035-08-01 0.9044 0.0012
346 │ 2035-09-01 0.9068 0.0013
347 │ 2035-10-01 0.9103 0.0013
348 │ 2035-11-01 0.914 0.0014
349 │ 2035-12-01 0.9171 0.0014
350 │ 2036-01-01 0.9205 0.0014
351 │ 2036-02-01 0.9225 0.0014
352 │ 2036-03-01 0.9243 0.0014
353 │ 2036-04-01 0.9271 0.0014
354 │ 2036-05-01 0.9301 0.0014
355 │ 2036-06-01 0.9323 0.0014
356 │ 2036-07-01 0.9348 0.0014
357 │ 2036-08-01 0.9363 0.0014
358 │ 2036-09-01 0.9378 0.0014
359 │ 2036-10-01 0.9401 0.0014
360 │ 2036-11-01 0.9417 0.0014
361 │ 2036-12-01 0.9439 0.0015
362 │ 2037-01-01 0.9459 0.0015
363 │ 2037-02-01 0.9478 0.0015
364 │ 2037-03-01 0.9497 0.0015
365 │ 2037-04-01 0.9517 0.0015
366 │ 2037-05-01 0.9535 0.0015
367 │ 2037-06-01 0.9549 0.0015
368 │ 2037-07-01 0.9565 0.0015
369 │ 2037-08-01 0.9574 0.0015
370 │ 2037-09-01 0.9593 0.0018
371 │ 2037-10-01 0.9608 0.0018
372 │ 2037-11-01 0.9617 0.002
373 │ 2037-12-01 0.9636 0.0021
374 │ 2038-01-01 0.9659 0.0022
375 │ 2038-02-01 0.9669 0.0024
376 │ 2038-03-01 0.968 0.0024
377 │ 2038-04-01 0.9691 0.0024
378 │ 2038-05-01 0.9702 0.0024
379 │ 2038-06-01 0.971 0.0026
380 │ 2038-07-01 0.9723 0.0026
381 │ 2038-08-01 0.9742 0.0027
382 │ 2038-09-01 0.9748 0.0027
383 │ 2038-10-01 0.9755 0.0028
384 │ 2038-11-01 0.9761 0.0029
385 │ 2038-12-01 0.9773 0.0029
386 │ 2039-01-01 0.9783 0.003
387 │ 2039-02-01 0.9789 0.0035
388 │ 2039-03-01 0.9801 0.0035
389 │ 2039-04-01 0.981 0.0036
390 │ 2039-05-01 0.9816 0.0036
391 │ 2039-06-01 0.9821 0.0036
392 │ 2039-07-01 0.9833 0.004
393 │ 2039-08-01 0.9837 0.004
394 │ 2039-09-01 0.984 0.0041
395 │ 2039-10-01 0.9843 0.0041
396 │ 2039-11-01 0.9847 0.0042
397 │ 2039-12-01 0.9854 0.0042
398 │ 2040-01-01 0.9857 0.0043
399 │ 2040-02-01 0.986 0.0044
400 │ 2040-03-01 0.987 0.0044
401 │ 2040-04-01 0.9875 0.0044
402 │ 2040-05-01 0.9882 0.0045
403 │ 2040-06-01 0.9886 0.0046
404 │ 2040-07-01 0.9887 0.0047
405 │ 2040-08-01 0.9888 0.0052
406 │ 2040-09-01 0.9894 0.0054
407 │ 2040-10-01 0.9896 0.0055
408 │ 2040-11-01 0.99 0.0056
409 │ 2040-12-01 0.9905 0.0056
410 │ 2041-01-01 0.9908 0.0056
411 │ 2041-02-01 0.9912 0.0057
412 │ 2041-03-01 0.9915 0.0057
413 │ 2041-04-01 0.9922 0.0058
414 │ 2041-05-01 0.9923 0.0061
415 │ 2041-06-01 0.9926 0.0062
416 │ 2041-07-01 0.9926 0.0064
417 │ 2041-08-01 0.9933 0.0065
418 │ 2041-09-01 0.9937 0.0065
419 │ 2041-10-01 0.9938 0.0066
420 │ 2041-11-01 0.994 0.0068
421 │ 2041-12-01 0.9941 0.007
422 │ 2042-01-01 0.9942 0.0072
423 │ 2042-02-01 0.9945 0.0075
424 │ 2042-03-01 0.9946 0.0078
425 │ 2042-04-01 0.9946 0.0082
426 │ 2042-05-01 0.9946 0.0083
427 │ 2042-06-01 0.9947 0.0084
428 │ 2042-07-01 0.9949 0.0084
429 │ 2042-08-01 0.995 0.0085
430 │ 2042-09-01 0.9952 0.0092
431 │ 2042-10-01 0.9954 0.0097
432 │ 2042-11-01 0.9954 0.01
433 │ 2042-12-01 0.9955 0.0102
434 │ 2043-01-01 0.9958 0.0103
435 │ 2043-02-01 0.9962 0.0104
436 │ 2043-03-01 0.9963 0.0109
437 │ 2043-04-01 0.9963 0.0111
438 │ 2043-05-01 0.9964 0.0111
439 │ 2043-06-01 0.9964 0.0113
440 │ 2043-07-01 0.9964 0.0116
441 │ 2043-08-01 0.9965 0.0121
442 │ 2043-09-01 0.9966 0.0125
443 │ 2043-10-01 0.9967 0.0131
444 │ 2043-11-01 0.9967 0.0133
445 │ 2043-12-01 0.997 0.014
446 │ 2044-01-01 0.997 0.0143
447 │ 2044-02-01 0.997 0.0147
448 │ 2044-03-01 0.9971 0.0153
449 │ 2044-04-01 0.9974 0.0158
450 │ 2044-05-01 0.9975 0.0161
451 │ 2044-06-01 0.9975 0.0164
452 │ 2044-07-01 0.9976 0.0166
453 │ 2044-08-01 0.9977 0.017
454 │ 2044-09-01 0.9978 0.0173
455 │ 2044-10-01 0.9981 0.0179
456 │ 2044-11-01 0.9984 0.0184
457 │ 2044-12-01 0.9984 0.0194
458 │ 2045-01-01 0.9985 0.0202
459 │ 2045-02-01 0.9985 0.0209
460 │ 2045-03-01 0.9986 0.0213
461 │ 2045-04-01 0.9986 0.0221
462 │ 2045-05-01 0.9987 0.023
463 │ 2045-06-01 0.9988 0.024
464 │ 2045-07-01 0.9988 0.0246
465 │ 2045-08-01 0.9988 0.025
466 │ 2045-09-01 0.9988 0.0254
467 │ 2045-10-01 0.9988 0.0261
468 │ 2045-11-01 0.9989 0.0273
469 │ 2045-12-01 0.9989 0.0281
470 │ 2046-01-01 0.9989 0.0289
471 │ 2046-02-01 0.9989 0.0297
472 │ 2046-03-01 0.999 0.0305
473 │ 2046-04-01 0.999 0.0314
474 │ 2046-05-01 0.999 0.0322
475 │ 2046-06-01 0.999 0.0333
476 │ 2046-07-01 0.9991 0.0341
477 │ 2046-08-01 0.9991 0.0357
478 │ 2046-09-01 0.9991 0.0374
479 │ 2046-10-01 0.9992 0.0389
480 │ 2046-11-01 0.9992 0.0407
481 │ 2046-12-01 0.9992 0.0419
482 │ 2047-01-01 0.9993 0.0437
483 │ 2047-02-01 0.9993 0.0453
484 │ 2047-03-01 0.9993 0.0466
485 │ 2047-04-01 0.9993 0.048
486 │ 2047-05-01 0.9993 0.0495
487 │ 2047-06-01 0.9993 0.0512
488 │ 2047-07-01 0.9993 0.0526
489 │ 2047-08-01 0.9993 0.0541
490 │ 2047-09-01 0.9993 0.0565
491 │ 2047-10-01 0.9994 0.0587
492 │ 2047-11-01 0.9994 0.0608
493 │ 2047-12-01 0.9994 0.0629
494 │ 2048-01-01 0.9994 0.0651
495 │ 2048-02-01 0.9994 0.0675
496 │ 2048-03-01 0.9995 0.0697
497 │ 2048-04-01 0.9996 0.0712
498 │ 2048-05-01 0.9996 0.0732
499 │ 2048-06-01 0.9996 0.0752
500 │ 2048-07-01 0.9996 0.0777
501 │ 2048-08-01 0.9996 0.08
502 │ 2048-09-01 0.9996 0.0825
503 │ 2048-10-01 0.9996 0.0845
504 │ 2048-11-01 0.9996 0.087
505 │ 2048-12-01 0.9996 0.0896
506 │ 2049-01-01 0.9996 0.0916
507 │ 2049-02-01 0.9996 0.0944
508 │ 2049-03-01 0.9996 0.0969
509 │ 2049-04-01 0.9996 0.0995
510 │ 2049-05-01 0.9996 0.103
511 │ 2049-06-01 0.9996 0.105
512 │ 2049-07-01 0.9997 0.1095
513 │ 2049-08-01 0.9998 0.1127
514 │ 2049-09-01 0.9998 0.116
515 │ 2049-10-01 0.9998 0.1204
516 │ 2049-11-01 0.9998 0.1243
517 │ 2049-12-01 0.9998 0.1282
518 │ 2050-01-01 0.9998 0.1308
519 │ 2050-02-01 0.9998 0.1346
520 │ 2050-03-01 0.9998 0.1387
521 │ 2050-04-01 0.9998 0.1433
522 │ 2050-05-01 0.9998 0.1475
523 │ 2050-06-01 0.9998 0.1518
524 │ 2050-07-01 0.9998 0.1553
525 │ 2050-08-01 0.9998 0.1594
526 │ 2050-09-01 0.9998 0.1632
527 │ 2050-10-01 0.9998 0.1683
528 │ 2050-11-01 0.9998 0.1739
529 │ 2050-12-01 0.9998 0.179
530 │ 2051-01-01 0.9998 0.1829
531 │ 2051-02-01 0.9998 0.1879
532 │ 2051-03-01 0.9998 0.192
533 │ 2051-04-01 0.9998 0.1956
534 │ 2051-05-01 0.9998 0.1994
535 │ 2051-06-01 0.9998 0.2034
536 │ 2051-07-01 0.9998 0.2078
537 │ 2051-08-01 0.9998 0.212
538 │ 2051-09-01 0.9998 0.2179
539 │ 2051-10-01 0.9998 0.2217
540 │ 2051-11-01 0.9998 0.2265
541 │ 2051-12-01 0.9998 0.2311
542 │ 2052-01-01 0.9998 0.2367
543 │ 2052-02-01 0.9998 0.2417
544 │ 2052-03-01 0.9998 0.2466
545 │ 2052-04-01 0.9998 0.2516
546 │ 2052-05-01 0.9998 0.2585
547 │ 2052-06-01 0.9998 0.2646
548 │ 2052-07-01 0.9998 0.2695
549 │ 2052-08-01 0.9998 0.2755
550 │ 2052-09-01 0.9998 0.2814
551 │ 2052-10-01 0.9998 0.2859
552 │ 2052-11-01 0.9998 0.2924
553 │ 2052-12-01 0.9998 0.2981
554 │ 2053-01-01 0.9998 0.3055
555 │ 2053-02-01 0.9998 0.311
556 │ 2053-03-01 0.9998 0.3171
557 │ 2053-04-01 0.9998 0.3232
558 │ 2053-05-01 0.9998 0.3294
559 │ 2053-06-01 0.9998 0.336
560 │ 2053-07-01 0.9998 0.3407
561 │ 2053-08-01 0.9998 0.3474
562 │ 2053-09-01 0.9998 0.3533
563 │ 2053-10-01 0.9998 0.359
564 │ 2053-11-01 0.9998 0.3664
565 │ 2053-12-01 0.9998 0.3716
566 │ 2054-01-01 0.9998 0.3779
567 │ 2054-02-01 0.9999 0.383
568 │ 2054-03-01 0.9999 0.3895
569 │ 2054-04-01 0.9999 0.3964
570 │ 2054-05-01 0.9999 0.4035
571 │ 2054-06-01 0.9999 0.4097
572 │ 2054-07-01 0.9999 0.416
573 │ 2054-08-01 0.9999 0.4236
574 │ 2054-09-01 0.9999 0.4297
575 │ 2054-10-01 0.9999 0.4363
576 │ 2054-11-01 0.9999 0.4434
577 │ 2054-12-01 0.9999 0.4504
578 │ 2055-01-01 0.9999 0.4583
579 │ 2055-02-01 0.9999 0.4668
580 │ 2055-03-01 0.9999 0.4747
581 │ 2055-04-01 0.9999 0.4809
582 │ 2055-05-01 0.9999 0.4882
583 │ 2055-06-01 0.9999 0.4947
584 │ 2055-07-01 0.9999 0.5021
585 │ 2055-08-01 0.9999 0.5099
586 │ 2055-09-01 0.9999 0.5172
587 │ 2055-10-01 0.9999 0.5236
588 │ 2055-11-01 0.9999 0.53
589 │ 2055-12-01 0.9999 0.5368
590 │ 2056-01-01 0.9999 0.5426
591 │ 2056-02-01 0.9999 0.5495
592 │ 2056-03-01 0.9999 0.5563
593 │ 2056-04-01 0.9999 0.5617
594 │ 2056-05-01 0.9999 0.5664
595 │ 2056-06-01 0.9999 0.5737
596 │ 2056-07-01 0.9999 0.5806
597 │ 2056-08-01 0.9999 0.5875
598 │ 2056-09-01 0.9999 0.594
599 │ 2056-10-01 0.9999 0.6004
600 │ 2056-11-01 0.9999 0.6072
601 │ 2056-12-01 0.9999 0.6158
602 │ 2057-01-01 0.9999 0.6214
603 │ 2057-02-01 0.9999 0.6286
604 │ 2057-03-01 0.9999 0.6347
605 │ 2057-04-01 0.9999 0.6392
606 │ 2057-05-01 0.9999 0.6465
607 │ 2057-06-01 0.9999 0.6522
608 │ 2057-07-01 0.9999 0.6586
609 │ 2057-08-01 0.9999 0.6643
610 │ 2057-09-01 0.9999 0.6698
611 │ 2057-10-01 0.9999 0.675
612 │ 2057-11-01 0.9999 0.6808
613 │ 2057-12-01 0.9999 0.6869
614 │ 2058-01-01 0.9999 0.6924
615 │ 2058-02-01 0.9999 0.6983
616 │ 2058-03-01 0.9999 0.7045
617 │ 2058-04-01 0.9999 0.71
618 │ 2058-05-01 0.9999 0.7148
619 │ 2058-06-01 0.9999 0.7206
620 │ 2058-07-01 0.9999 0.7274
621 │ 2058-08-01 0.9999 0.7336
622 │ 2058-09-01 0.9999 0.7395
623 │ 2058-10-01 0.9999 0.7451
624 │ 2058-11-01 0.9999 0.7492
625 │ 2058-12-01 0.9999 0.754
626 │ 2059-01-01 0.9999 0.7599
627 │ 2059-02-01 0.9999 0.7648
628 │ 2059-03-01 0.9999 0.7699
629 │ 2059-04-01 0.9999 0.7745
630 │ 2059-05-01 0.9999 0.7792
631 │ 2059-06-01 1.0 0.7847
632 │ 2059-07-01 1.0 0.7882
633 │ 2059-08-01 1.0 0.7934
634 │ 2059-09-01 1.0 0.7991
635 │ 2059-10-01 1.0 0.8036
636 │ 2059-11-01 1.0 0.8069
637 │ 2059-12-01 1.0 0.8106
638 │ 2060-01-01 1.0 0.8158
639 │ 2060-02-01 1.0 0.8213
640 │ 2060-03-01 1.0 0.826
641 │ 2060-04-01 1.0 0.8296
642 │ 2060-05-01 1.0 0.8342
643 │ 2060-06-01 1.0 0.8384
644 │ 2060-07-01 1.0 0.8426
645 │ 2060-08-01 1.0 0.8465
646 │ 2060-09-01 1.0 0.8498
647 │ 2060-10-01 1.0 0.8535
648 │ 2060-11-01 1.0 0.8569
649 │ 2060-12-01 1.0 0.8598
650 │ 2061-01-01 1.0 0.8631
651 │ 2061-02-01 1.0 0.8673
652 │ 2061-03-01 1.0 0.8706
653 │ 2061-04-01 1.0 0.8745
654 │ 2061-05-01 1.0 0.8779
655 │ 2061-06-01 1.0 0.88
656 │ 2061-07-01 1.0 0.8828
657 │ 2061-08-01 1.0 0.8851
658 │ 2061-09-01 1.0 0.8884
659 │ 2061-10-01 1.0 0.8912
660 │ 2061-11-01 1.0 0.8947
661 │ 2061-12-01 1.0 0.8969
662 │ 2062-01-01 1.0 0.9
663 │ 2062-02-01 1.0 0.9029
664 │ 2062-03-01 1.0 0.9052
665 │ 2062-04-01 1.0 0.907
666 │ 2062-05-01 1.0 0.9086
667 │ 2062-06-01 1.0 0.9118
668 │ 2062-07-01 1.0 0.9141
669 │ 2062-08-01 1.0 0.9163
670 │ 2062-09-01 1.0 0.9188
671 │ 2062-10-01 1.0 0.9208
672 │ 2062-11-01 1.0 0.9226
673 │ 2062-12-01 1.0 0.9251
674 │ 2063-01-01 1.0 0.9275
675 │ 2063-02-01 1.0 0.9292
676 │ 2063-03-01 1.0 0.9318
677 │ 2063-04-01 1.0 0.9344
678 │ 2063-05-01 1.0 0.9364
679 │ 2063-06-01 1.0 0.9384
680 │ 2063-07-01 1.0 0.9407
681 │ 2063-08-01 1.0 0.9425
682 │ 2063-09-01 1.0 0.9445
683 │ 2063-10-01 1.0 0.9469
684 │ 2063-11-01 1.0 0.9483
685 │ 2063-12-01 1.0 0.9502
686 │ 2064-01-01 1.0 0.9512
687 │ 2064-02-01 1.0 0.9527
688 │ 2064-03-01 1.0 0.9548
689 │ 2064-04-01 1.0 0.956
690 │ 2064-05-01 1.0 0.9573
691 │ 2064-06-01 1.0 0.9585
692 │ 2064-07-01 1.0 0.9596
693 │ 2064-08-01 1.0 0.9605
694 │ 2064-09-01 1.0 0.9619
695 │ 2064-10-01 1.0 0.9635
696 │ 2064-11-01 1.0 0.9643
697 │ 2064-12-01 1.0 0.9658
698 │ 2065-01-01 1.0 0.9668
699 │ 2065-02-01 1.0 0.9682
700 │ 2065-03-01 1.0 0.9692
701 │ 2065-04-01 1.0 0.9703
702 │ 2065-05-01 1.0 0.9715
703 │ 2065-06-01 1.0 0.9727
704 │ 2065-07-01 1.0 0.9736
705 │ 2065-08-01 1.0 0.9752
706 │ 2065-09-01 1.0 0.9759
707 │ 2065-10-01 1.0 0.9764
708 │ 2065-11-01 1.0 0.9772
709 │ 2065-12-01 1.0 0.9777
710 │ 2066-01-01 1.0 0.9782
711 │ 2066-02-01 1.0 0.9793
712 │ 2066-03-01 1.0 0.98
713 │ 2066-04-01 1.0 0.9805
714 │ 2066-05-01 1.0 0.9811
715 │ 2066-06-01 1.0 0.9819
716 │ 2066-07-01 1.0 0.9823
717 │ 2066-08-01 1.0 0.9828
718 │ 2066-09-01 1.0 0.9836
719 │ 2066-10-01 1.0 0.9841
720 │ 2066-11-01 1.0 0.9846
721 │ 2066-12-01 1.0 0.9859
722 │ 2067-01-01 1.0 0.9865
723 │ 2067-02-01 1.0 0.987
724 │ 2067-03-01 1.0 0.9873
725 │ 2067-04-01 1.0 0.9881
726 │ 2067-05-01 1.0 0.9886
727 │ 2067-06-01 1.0 0.9893
728 │ 2067-07-01 1.0 0.9895
729 │ 2067-08-01 1.0 0.9901
730 │ 2067-09-01 1.0 0.9903
731 │ 2067-10-01 1.0 0.9905
732 │ 2067-11-01 1.0 0.9909
733 │ 2067-12-01 1.0 0.9911
734 │ 2068-01-01 1.0 0.9915
735 │ 2068-02-01 1.0 0.9917
736 │ 2068-03-01 1.0 0.992
737 │ 2068-04-01 1.0 0.9921
738 │ 2068-05-01 1.0 0.9921
739 │ 2068-06-01 1.0 0.9924
740 │ 2068-07-01 1.0 0.9927
741 │ 2068-08-01 1.0 0.9927
742 │ 2068-09-01 1.0 0.993
743 │ 2068-10-01 1.0 0.993
744 │ 2068-11-01 1.0 0.9932
745 │ 2068-12-01 1.0 0.9934
746 │ 2069-01-01 1.0 0.994
747 │ 2069-02-01 1.0 0.9944
748 │ 2069-03-01 1.0 0.9945
749 │ 2069-04-01 1.0 0.9948
750 │ 2069-05-01 1.0 0.9953
751 │ 2069-06-01 1.0 0.9954
752 │ 2069-07-01 1.0 0.9954
753 │ 2069-08-01 1.0 0.9957
754 │ 2069-09-01 1.0 0.9957
755 │ 2069-10-01 1.0 0.9958
756 │ 2069-11-01 1.0 0.9959
757 │ 2069-12-01 1.0 0.9961
758 │ 2070-01-01 1.0 0.9963
759 │ 2070-02-01 1.0 0.9963
760 │ 2070-03-01 1.0 0.9964
761 │ 2070-04-01 1.0 0.9964
762 │ 2070-05-01 1.0 0.9967
763 │ 2070-06-01 1.0 0.9968
764 │ 2070-07-01 1.0 0.9968
765 │ 2070-08-01 1.0 0.9969
766 │ 2070-09-01 1.0 0.9971
767 │ 2070-10-01 1.0 0.9973
768 │ 2070-11-01 1.0 0.9976
769 │ 2070-12-01 1.0 0.9976
770 │ 2071-01-01 1.0 0.9976
771 │ 2071-02-01 1.0 0.9977
772 │ 2071-03-01 1.0 0.9977
773 │ 2071-04-01 1.0 0.9978
774 │ 2071-05-01 1.0 0.998
775 │ 2071-06-01 1.0 0.998
776 │ 2071-07-01 1.0 0.998
777 │ 2071-08-01 1.0 0.9982
778 │ 2071-09-01 1.0 0.9983
779 │ 2071-10-01 1.0 0.9986
780 │ 2071-11-01 1.0 0.9986
781 │ 2071-12-01 1.0 0.9986
782 │ 2072-01-01 1.0 0.9986
783 │ 2072-02-01 1.0 0.9986
784 │ 2072-03-01 1.0 0.9987
785 │ 2072-04-01 1.0 0.9987
786 │ 2072-05-01 1.0 0.9988
787 │ 2072-06-01 1.0 0.9988
788 │ 2072-07-01 1.0 0.9989
789 │ 2072-08-01 1.0 0.999
790 │ 2072-09-01 1.0 0.999
791 │ 2072-10-01 1.0 0.999
792 │ 2072-11-01 1.0 0.999
793 │ 2072-12-01 1.0 0.999
794 │ 2073-01-01 1.0 0.999
795 │ 2073-02-01 1.0 0.9991
796 │ 2073-03-01 1.0 0.9991
797 │ 2073-04-01 1.0 0.9991
798 │ 2073-05-01 1.0 0.9991
799 │ 2073-06-01 1.0 0.9992
800 │ 2073-07-01 1.0 0.9993
801 │ 2073-08-01 1.0 0.9995
802 │ 2073-09-01 1.0 0.9995
803 │ 2073-10-01 1.0 0.9995
804 │ 2073-11-01 1.0 0.9995
805 │ 2073-12-01 1.0 0.9995
806 │ 2074-01-01 1.0 0.9997
807 │ 2074-02-01 1.0 0.9997
808 │ 2074-03-01 1.0 0.9997
809 │ 2074-04-01 1.0 0.9997
810 │ 2074-05-01 1.0 0.9997
811 │ 2074-06-01 1.0 0.9997
812 │ 2074-07-01 1.0 0.9997
813 │ 2074-08-01 1.0 0.9997
814 │ 2074-09-01 1.0 0.9997
815 │ 2074-10-01 1.0 0.9997
816 │ 2074-11-01 1.0 0.9997
817 │ 2074-12-01 1.0 0.9998
818 │ 2075-01-01 1.0 0.9998
819 │ 2075-02-01 1.0 0.9998
820 │ 2075-03-01 1.0 0.9998
821 │ 2075-04-01 1.0 0.9998
822 │ 2075-05-01 1.0 0.9998
823 │ 2075-06-01 1.0 0.9998
824 │ 2075-07-01 1.0 0.9999
825 │ 2075-08-01 1.0 0.9999
826 │ 2075-09-01 1.0 0.9999
827 │ 2075-10-01 1.0 0.9999
828 │ 2075-11-01 1.0 0.9999
829 │ 2075-12-01 1.0 0.9999
830 │ 2076-01-01 1.0 0.9999
831 │ 2076-02-01 1.0 0.9999
832 │ 2076-03-01 1.0 0.9999
833 │ 2076-04-01 1.0 0.9999
834 │ 2076-05-01 1.0 0.9999
835 │ 2076-06-01 1.0 0.9999
836 │ 2076-07-01 1.0 0.9999
837 │ 2076-08-01 1.0 0.9999
838 │ 2076-09-01 1.0 0.9999
839 │ 2076-10-01 1.0 0.9999
840 │ 2076-11-01 1.0 0.9999
841 │ 2076-12-01 1.0 0.9999
842 │ 2077-01-01 1.0 0.9999
843 │ 2077-02-01 1.0 0.9999
844 │ 2077-03-01 1.0 0.9999
845 │ 2077-04-01 1.0 0.9999
846 │ 2077-05-01 1.0 0.9999
847 │ 2077-06-01 1.0 0.9999
848 │ 2077-07-01 1.0 0.9999
849 │ 2077-08-01 1.0 0.9999
850 │ 2077-09-01 1.0 0.9999
851 │ 2077-10-01 1.0 0.9999
852 │ 2077-11-01 1.0 0.9999
853 │ 2077-12-01 1.0 0.9999
854 │ 2078-01-01 1.0 0.9999
855 │ 2078-02-01 1.0 0.9999
856 │ 2078-03-01 1.0 0.9999
857 │ 2078-04-01 1.0 0.9999
858 │ 2078-05-01 1.0 0.9999
859 │ 2078-06-01 1.0 0.9999
860 │ 2078-07-01 1.0 0.9999
861 │ 2078-08-01 1.0 0.9999
862 │ 2078-09-01 1.0 0.9999
863 │ 2078-10-01 1.0 0.9999
864 │ 2078-11-01 1.0 0.9999
865 │ 2078-12-01 1.0 0.9999
866 │ 2079-01-01 1.0 0.9999
867 │ 2079-02-01 1.0 0.9999
868 │ 2079-03-01 1.0 0.9999
869 │ 2079-04-01 1.0 0.9999
870 │ 2079-05-01 1.0 0.9999
871 │ 2079-06-01 1.0 0.9999
872 │ 2079-07-01 1.0 0.9999
873 │ 2079-08-01 1.0 0.9999
874 │ 2079-09-01 1.0 0.9999
875 │ 2079-10-01 1.0 0.9999
876 │ 2079-11-01 1.0 0.9999
877 │ 2079-12-01 1.0 0.9999
878 │ 2080-01-01 1.0 0.9999
879 │ 2080-02-01 1.0 0.9999
880 │ 2080-03-01 1.0 0.9999
881 │ 2080-04-01 1.0 0.9999
882 │ 2080-05-01 1.0 0.9999
883 │ 2080-06-01 1.0 0.9999
884 │ 2080-07-01 1.0 0.9999
885 │ 2080-08-01 1.0 0.9999
886 │ 2080-09-01 1.0 0.9999
887 │ 2080-10-01 1.0 0.9999
888 │ 2080-11-01 1.0 0.9999
889 │ 2080-12-01 1.0 0.9999
890 │ 2081-01-01 1.0 0.9999
891 │ 2081-02-01 1.0 0.9999
892 │ 2081-03-01 1.0 0.9999
893 │ 2081-04-01 1.0 0.9999
894 │ 2081-05-01 1.0 0.9999
895 │ 2081-06-01 1.0 0.9999| Row | Probability level and period | 1.5°C Threshold | 2°C Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| String | Date | Date | |
| 1 | Above 1%, 20-years avg. | 2025-01-01 | 2042-11-01 |
| 2 | Above 5%, 20-years avg. | 2026-08-01 | 2047-06-01 |
| 3 | Above 10%, 20-years avg. | 2027-06-01 | 2049-05-01 |
| 4 | Above 25%, 20-years avg. | 2028-08-01 | 2052-04-01 |
| 5 | Above 50%, 20-years avg. | 2030-06-01 | 2055-07-01 |
| 6 | Above 75%, 20-years avg. | 2032-03-01 | 2058-12-01 |
| 7 | Above 90%, 20-years avg. | 2035-07-01 | 2062-01-01 |
| 8 | Above 95%, 20-years avg. | 2037-04-01 | 2063-12-01 |
| 9 | Above 99%, 20-years avg. | 2040-11-01 | 2067-08-01 |
Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo, and Olivia Kvist. 2024. “Breaching 1.5°C: Give Me the Odds.” arXiv, December. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2412.13855.
@article{vera-valdés2024,
author = {Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo and Kvist, Olivia},
title = {Breaching {1.5°C:} Give Me the Odds},
journal = {arXiv},
date = {2024-12-17},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.13855},
doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2412.13855},
}