The Persistence of Financial Volatility After COVID-19 (2021), Vera-Valdés, J.E., Finance Research Letters. DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102056 [Open Access].
This paper analyzes the long-term effects of COVID-19 on financial volatility. Our results show that volatility measures for most countries experienced increases in the degrees of memory following the pandemic. That is, there is evidence that the effects of the pandemic on the financial sector will be long-lasting. Research Article
Air Pollution and Mobility, What Drives COVID-19? (2021), Rodríguez-Caballero, C.V., and Vera-Valdés, J.E., Econometrics, 9(4). DOI: 10.3390/econometrics9040037 [Open Access].
This paper analyzes the relation between air pollution exposure and the spread of COVID-19 in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. Our results show that short-term exposure to air pollution is not a significant factor for explaining the spread of the virus once we control for the time-variant commonality among municipalities. We show that this common factor is correlated to mobility. Thus, our results show that mobility seems to be the main driver behind the number of deaths in the short-term. Research Article
Air Pollution and Mobility in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area in Times of COVID-19 (2021), Vera-Valdés, J.E., and, Rodríguez-Caballero, C.V., Atmósfera. URL: revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53052 [Open Access].
This paper analyzes the relation between COVID-19, air pollution, and public transport mobility in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). Our results show that mobility in public transportation was significantly reduced following the government’s recommendations. Nonetheless, we show that the reduction in mobility was not accompanied by a reduction in air pollution. Thus, our results suggest that air pollution in the MCMA seems primarily driven by industry and private car usage. Research Article
The Political Risk Factors of COVID-19 (2021), Vera-Valdés, J.E., International Review of Applied Economics, 35-2: 1-19. DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2020.1866973 [Open Access].
This paper analyses a broad range of macro variables to assess the effects that they have on the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. The results show that lower alcohol consumption, and trust in medical personnel and the government are associated with a lower number of cases and deaths. Overall, our results show that countries that are better prepared to cope with COVID-19 are those that can react to the pandemic in a timely, coordinated fashion.
Long-Lasting Economic Eﬀects of Pandemics: Evidence on Growth and Unemployment (2020), Rodríguez-Caballero, C.V., and Vera-Valdés, J.E., Econometrics, 8-37: 1-16. DOI: 10.3390/econometrics8030037 [Open Access].
In this publication, we show that long memory models and time series analysis can be used to gather knowledge that can help in the recovery post-COVID19. We show that growth and unemployment in post-pandemic periods may take a long time to return to pre-pandemic levels in the absence of policies aimed to soften the economic shock. The analysis supports the design and implementation of timely counter-cyclical policies.