Global Warming Has Been Accelerating Since At Least 1990

Abstract

We investigate acceleration in global temperature, defining acceleration as a supralinear (greater-than-linear) increase over time. We develop a statistical framework to test for supralinear trends using a linearithmic specification. Our results indicate evidence of acceleration in global temperature since at least 1990, with significance strengthening as more recent data are included. In contrast, evidence for acceleration under a quadratic specification is significant only in the longest estimation window. We also show that, if the true temperature trend is supralinear, standard break-point tests will eventually detect changes in the slope of a linear trend model, which may explain reported structural breaks in global temperature trends.

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Recommended citation

Text

Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo. 2026. “Global Warming Has Been Accelerating Since at Least 1990.” arXiv (2606.04114).

BibTex

@article{VeraValdes2026acceleration,
  title   = {Global Warming Has Been Accelerating Since At Least 1990},
  author  = {Vera-Vald{\'e}s, J. Eduardo},
  journal = {arXiv (2606.04114)},
  year    = {2026},
  doi     = {10.48550/arXiv.2606.04114},
  url     = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.04114}
}