J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés

Education

PhD in Econometrics | Center for Research in Econometrics and Time Series Analysis (CREATES) | Aarhus, Denmark | 2013-2016
- Download my PhD thesis here, watch the defence here, and follow the discussion along downloading the presentation here.
MSc in Economics | Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE) | Mexico City, Mexico | 2008-2010
BSc in Mathematics | Center for Research in Mathematics (CIMAT) | Guanajuato, Mexico | 2002-2007

Experience

Associate Professor | Aalborg University | Sep 2020 - present
- Leader of the Group for Research in Econometrics And Time Series (GREAT)
- Associate of the Center for Research in Energy: Economics and Markets (CoRE)
- Research Fellow at the Danish Finance Institute (DFI)
Assistant Professor | Aalborg University | Sep 2017 - Aug 2020
Research Assistant | Aalborg University | Jul - Aug 2017
Research Assistant | Aarhus University and CREATES | Sep - Nov 2016, Jan - Mar 2017
Assistant Professor | University of Guanajuato | Aug 2012 - Jul 2013
Economist | Mexico’s Central Bank | Aug 2010 - Jul 2012

Publications

Year	Title	Author
2026	Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds	J.E. Vera-Valdés, O. Kvist
2026	Risk-Premium-Aware Probabilistic Forecasting of Danish Electricity Imbalance Prices with Neural	C.T.G Christiansen, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2026	The Effect of CEO Public Behaviour on the Company’s Valuation: The Case of Tesla and Elon Musk	O. Kvist, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2026	Effects of the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19 Pandemic on Volatility Persistence of Stocks Associated with the Climate Crisis: A Multiverse Analysis	J.E. Vera-Valdés, O. Kvist
2026	Non-intrusive hourly occupancy detection in residential buildings using remotely readable water meter data: Validation and large-scale analysis	M. Schaffer, J.E. Vera-Valdés, A. Marszal-Pomianowska
2025	LongMemory.jl: Generating, Estimating, and Forecasting Long Memory Models in Julia	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2025	Robust Estimation of the Carbon Dioxide Airborne Fraction Under Measurement Errors	J.E. Vera-Valdés, C. Grivas
2024	Exploring Smart Heat Meter Data: A Co-Clustering Driven Approach to Analyse the Energy Use of Single-Family Houses	M. Schaffer, J.E. Vera-Valdés, A. Marszal-Pomianowska
2024	Disaggregation of Total Energy Use Into Space Heating and Domestic Hot Water: A City-Scale Suited Approach	M. Schaffer, J. Widen, J.E. Vera-Valdés, A. Marszal-Pomianowska, T.S. Larsen
2023	Analysing Energy Use Clusters of Single-Family Houses Using Building and Socio-Economic Characteristics	M. Schaffer, A.R. Hansen, J.E. Vera-Valdés, A. Marszal-Pomianowska
2023	Increasing the Accuracy of Low-Resolution Commercial Smart Heat Meter Data and Analysing its Error	M. Schaffer, D. Leiria, J.E. Vera-Valdés, A. Marszal-Pomianowska
2023	Air Pollution And Mobility In The Mexico City Metropolitan Area In Times of COVID-19	J.E. Vera-Valdés, C.V. Rodríguez-Caballero
2022	The Persistence of Financial Volatility After COVID-19	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2022	Spurious Multivariate Regressions Under Fractionally Integrated Processes	D. Ventosa-Santaulària, J.E. Vera-Valdés, K. Lasak, R. Ramírez-Vargas
2021	Nonfractional Long-Range Dependence: Long Memory, Antipersistence, and Aggregation	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2021	Air Pollution and Mobility, What Drives COVID-19?	C.V. Rodríguez-Caballero, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2021	Temperature Anomalies, Long Memory, and Aggregation	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2021	The Political Risk Factors of COVID-19	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2020	Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on Growth and Unemployment	Rodríguez-Caballero, C.V., J.E. Vera-Valdés
2020	On Long Memory Origins and Forecast Horizons	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2018	The VIX, the Variance Premium, and Expected Returns	D. Osterrieder, D. Ventosa-Santaulària, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2017	Long Memory, Fractional Integration, and Cross-Sectional Aggregation	N. Haldrup, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2015	A Comment on ‘Resolving Spurious Regressions and Serially Correlated Errors’	D. Ventosa-Santaulària, J.E. Vera-Valdés, A.I. Martínez-Olmos
2013	Simulation Analysis as a Way to Assess the Performance of Important Unit Root and Change in Persistence Tests	R. Fernández, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2011	Real Business Cycles in Emerging Economies The Role of International Growth and Interest Rate	R. Fernández, J.E. Vera-Valdés, F. Venegas-Martínez
2011	Spurious Forecasts?	B. Martínez-Rivera, D. Ventosa-Santaulària, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2008	Granger-Causality in the Presence of Structural Breaks	D. Ventosa-Santaulària, J.E. Vera-Valdés

Working Papers

Year	Title	Author
2026	Spatial Emergence of Acceleration in Global Warming	T.K. Bugajski, N.P.B. Pedersen, J.E. Vera-Valdés
2026	Global Warming Has Been Accelerating Since At Least 1990	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2026	Multi-source land-use emissions reveal rising airborne fraction	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2026	Global Temperature Anomalies in Practice	J.E. Vera-Valdés
2025	Daily Rhythms in Blood Glucose: Time-of-Day Forecasts in Type 2 Diabetes	N.P.B. Pedersen, T.K. Bugajski, J.E. Vera-Valdés, S.H. Casper, M.H. Jensen, P. Vestergaard, T. Kronborg
2024	The Effect of News from COP28 on Green and Brown Stocks: A High-Frequency Analysis	O. Kvist, J.E. Vera-Valdés

Software

Title	Description	Language
SimT2D.jl	A package for simulating type 2 diabetes data in Julia.	Julia
LongMemory.jl	A package for time series long memory modelling in Julia.	Julia
Quarto manuscript for Multi-source land-use emissions reveal rising airborne fraction	A Quarto manuscript that provides an overview of the methods and results from the paper Multi-source land-use emissions reveal rising airborne fraction.	Julia
Quarto manuscript for Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds	A Quarto manuscript that provides an overview of the methods and results from the paper Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds. Replication codes and data are available at the GitHub repository here.	Julia
Dashboard for Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds	A dashboard that provides continuously updated results from the paper Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds.	Julia
Quarto notebook to obtain Global Temperature Anomalies data.	A Quarto notebook to obtain global temperature anomalies data from the most used datasets (HadCRUT5, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, and NOAA). The notebook computes temperature anomalies relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) and provides plots of the data.	Julia
Quarto manuscript for Robust Estimation of the Carbon Dioxide Airborne Fraction Under Measurement Errors	A Quarto manuscript with the methods and results from the paper Robust Estimation of the Carbon Dioxide Airborne Fraction Under Measurement Errors. Quick access to the replication notebook here.	Julia
Replication notebook for A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction.	A Quarto notebook that replicates the results from the paper.	Julia
Replication codes for Effects of the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19 Pandemic on Volatility Persistence of Stocks Associated with the Climate Crisis: A Multiverse Analysis	Replication codes for the paper.	Julia
Econometrics with Julia	A Quarto book that introduces econometrics using the Julia programming language.	Julia
MICE Illustration	A notebook that illustrates the use of the MICE package for multivariate imputation by chained equations in R.	R
Time Series Exercise	A notebook that provides an exercise on time series decomposition and forecasting using exponential smoothing and the Holt-Winters model in R.	R

Talks

Date	Title	Forum	Host
02/03/2026	Global Warming Acceleration: Is Temperature Rising Faster Than Linearly?	Aarhus University Econometrics Seminar	University of Victoria, Canada
27/08/2025	Global Temperature Acceleration in a World with Long Memory	Econometric Models of Climate Change 2025 Conference	University of Victoria, Canada
22/04/2025	Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds	Climate Econometrics Virtual Seminar	University of Oxford
01/08/2024	The Story of 1.5°C: Obtaining the Probability of Breaching the Goals of the Paris Agreement Using Long Memory Models	Econometric Models of Climate Change 2024 Conference	University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
01/08/2023	The effect of the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility persistence of brown and green stocks	Econometric Models of Climate Change 2023 Conference	Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
01/06/2023	The effect of the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility persistence of brown and green stocks	International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference	BI Norwegian Business School
01/05/2022	The Difference-in-Variance Test for Asymmetry	Statistics Department Seminar Series	Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology, ITAM
01/12/2021	The Economic and Financial Repercussions of COVID-19	World Pandemic Network 2021 Conference
01/05/2019	Nonfractional Memory: Filtering, Antipersistence, and Estimation	10th Nordic Econometric Meeting	Stockholm University
01/06/2018	Nonfractional Memory: Filtering, Antipersistence, and Forecasting	International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference	Université du Québec à Montréal
01/06/2018	Nonfractional Memory: Filtering, Antipersistence, and Forecasting	Long Memory Conference	Aalborg University
01/12/2017	Long Horizon Forecasts	11th Computational and Financial Econometrics Conference	University of London
01/02/2017	Forecasting Long Memory Processes with the ARFIMA Model	Applied Economics Department Seminar	University of the Balearic Islands
01/01/2017	Forecasting Long Memory Processes with the ARFIMA Model	Statistics Department Seminar	Carlos III University of Madrid
01/06/2016	Long Memory, Fractional Integration, and Cross-Sectional Aggregation	International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference	University of Milano-Bicocca
01/04/2016	Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation	Royal Economic Society Annual Conference	University of Sussex
01/03/2016	Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation	Econometric Institute Research Meeting	Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute
01/03/2016	Long Memory and Cross-Sectional Aggregation	PhD Lunch Seminar Rotterdam	Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute
01/11/2015	Long Memory and Cross-Sectional Aggregation	DGPE Workshop	Sandbjerg Gods
01/10/2015	Long Memory and Cross-Sectional Aggregation	4th Long Memory Symposium	Aarhus University and CREATES
01/10/2015	Long Memory and Cross-Sectional Aggregation	CREATES Lunch Seminar	Aarhus University and CREATES
01/05/2015	Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation	8th Nordic Econometric Meeting	University of Helsinki
01/12/2014	Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation	CREATES Lunch Seminar	Aarhus University and CREATES
01/10/2009	Spurious Forecasts?	XLII Congress of the Mexican Mathematical Society
01/10/2008	Granger-Causality in the Presence of Structural Breaks	Mexican Colloquium of Mathematical Economics and Econometrics
01/05/2008	Granger-Causality in the Presence of Structural Breaks	XLI Congress of the Mexican Mathematical Society

Grants and Awards

Danish Data Science Academy (DDSA) Large Events Grant to the organization of the 2026 Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC-X)
The Carlsberg Foundation Grant for the organization of the 2026 Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC-X)
Danish Data Science Academy (DDSA) Small Events Grant to the organization of Earth Day 2026
Danish Data Science Academy (DDSA) Grant to the organization of the 2026 Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC-X)
Danish Data Science Academy (DDSA) Grant to the organization of Earth Day 2025
Danish Data Science Academy (DDSA) Grant to the organization of Earth Day 2024
Danish Data Science Academy (DDSA) Grant for the formation of JUGA: Julia Users Group Aalborg
Danish Data Science Academy (DDSA) Grant to the organization of Earth Day 2023: The Use of Data Science to Combat Global Heating
The Carlsberg Foundation Grant for the organization of the 2018 Long Memory Conference
Independent Research Fund Denmark (IRFD) International Postdoctoral Grant
National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT) Fellowship for Graduate Studies
Center for Mathematical Research (CIMAT) Fellowship for Undergraduate Studies

Teaching

Aalborg University

Graduate and Undergraduate Courses, PhD in the Faculty of Engineering, MSc and BSc in Mathematics-Economics, BSc in Business Economics, MSc in Operations Management
- Missing Data and Imputation Methods [PhD] (Lecturer, 2023-)
- Do’s and Don’ts of Statistics in Research [PhD] (Lecturer, 2024-)
- Computational Statistics [MSc] (Lecturer, 2025-)
- Econometrics [MSc] (Lecturer, 2019-)
- Time Series Analysis [MSc] (Lecturer, 2024-)
- Statistical Learning [MSc] (Lecturer, 2018-2022)
- Financial Markets [BSc] (Lecturer, 2023-)
- Advanced Operations Management [MSc] (Lecturer, 2017-)
- Applied Quantitative Methods [MSc] (Lecturer, 2021)
- Data-Driven Business Development [MSc] (Lecturer, 2020)
- Financial Econometrics [MSc] (Lecturer, 2018)
- Topics in Statistical Sciences I [MSc] (Lecturer, 2018)
Aarhus University

Undergraduate Courses, BSc in Economics
- Econometrics I [BSc] (Teaching Assistant, 2014-2015)
- Programming in Quantitative Economics [BSc] (Teaching Assistant, 2015)
University of Guanajuato

Graduate and Undergraduate Courses, MSc and BSc in Economics
- Econometrics I [BSc] (Lecturer, 2013)
- Econometrics II [BSc] (Lecturer, 2013)
- Time Series [BSc] (Lecturer, 2012)
- Microeconometrics [MSc] (Lecturer, 2012)
- Dynamic Optimization [BSc] (Teaching Assistant, 2006)
Centre for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)

Undergraduate Courses, BSc in Economics
- Econometrics I [BSc] (Teaching Assistant, 2012)
- Mathematics IV [BSc] (Teaching Assistant, 2009).

Supervision

Degree Projects

Year	Degree	Title	Students
2025	PhD Thesis	Using Large-Scale Building Characteristics and Remotely Readable Water and Heat Meter: Proofs of Concept for Gaining Insights into Single-Family Houses	Markus Schaffer
2026	Master’s Thesis	Modelling Electricity Prices in 15-Minute Intervals: A Panel Data Approach	Andreas Laurids Pedersen, Elissa Kamil Yammin
2026	Master’s Thesis	Analysis of Imbalance Price Dynamics in the Danish Balancing Market	Frederik Dyrup Revsbech
2026	Master’s Thesis	The Impact of Variable Renewable Energy Sources Forecast Errors on Electricity Price Spreads and Asymmetric Volatility Dynamics	Marcus Basse
2026	Master’s Thesis	SimT2D A Behavioural-Physiological Simulator for Type 2 Diabetes Glucose Traces. A Stochastic Framework for Interpretable Data Generation	Tanja Kortsen Bugajski
2025	Master’s Thesis	LSTM-Based Forecasting of Danish Electricity Imbalance Price	Christian Taulbjerg Gørup Christiansen
2024	Master’s Thesis	High Frequency Jump Tests	Asim Hodzic
2024	Master’s Thesis	Event Study: A High-Frequency Approach	Olivia My Tøffner Kvist
2023	Master’s Thesis	Financial Modelling with Copulas: Model Selection for Risk Management	Rasmus Rosted Nørrevang, Sebastian Søndergaard Kure
2022	Master’s Thesis	Copulas and Value-at-Risk: Risk Estimation of Portfolios	Henriette Rønfeldt Pedersen, Charlotte Kargo Lauridsen, Thea Lund Jørgensen
2022	Master’s Thesis	The Effect of Climate Change on Volatility Indicies for the S&P500 Index Modelled by Machine Learning Methods	Mathilde Bach, Signe Denhardt Brandt Nielsen, Lise Lønsmann Nielsen
2022	Master’s Thesis	Predicting Probability of Default Using Advanced Machine Learning Methods	Jonas Brunholm Jensen
2021	Master’s Thesis	On the Feasibility of Trading Electricity Futures with LSTM Networks	Jonathan Strandberg
2021	Master’s Thesis	Energy Trading: A Neural Network Approach	Magnus Birkernose Nordam
2019	Master’s Thesis	Parameter Testing in Roof Constructions	Tobias Olsson
2019	Master’s Thesis	The Effect of Climate Change on Gross Domestic Product per Capita	Ann-Katrine Kjærsgaard Nielsen
2019	Master’s Thesis	Cross-Border Energy Trading in Australia	Jeppe Egede Skjoldahl
2018	Master’s Thesis	On Machine Learning Based Cryptocurrency Trading	William Geneser Bach, Kasper Lindblad Nielsen
2026	Bachelor’s Thesis	Utility Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model: A Mathematical Derivation	Mikkel Albeck-Madsen
2025	Bachelor’s Thesis	Financial Bubbles	Simon Tresor Ngabo, Jens Adam Geisler Krogsgaard, Emilie Wilki Birch
2025	Bachelor’s Thesis	Cointegration Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Demand	Jens Fjordbak Reuss Iversen
2025	Bachelor’s Thesis	Financial Bubbles	Niklas Thorgaard Sørensen, Magnus Toft Høj, Nicolai Kjær Johannesen
2025	Bachelor’s Thesis	Long Memory in Volatility	Mads Joachim Staunstrup, Mia Larsen, Amalie Sloth Vestergaard, Willi Wang
2024	Bachelor’s Thesis	Predictive Analysis of Gas Dynamics Using VAR Models	Amalie Egholm Bjerrum
2018	Bachelor’s Thesis	Forecasting Electricity Prices	Mathias Tokkesdal Henriksen, Thomas Mortensen, Toke Christian Zinn, Morten Andersen