Real Business Cycles in Emerging Economies The Role of International Growth and Interest Rate

Published
Forecasting
Authors

R. Fernández

J.E. Vera-Valdés

F. Venegas-Martínez

Published

2011

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) for a small open emerging economy (SOEE) where the interest rate is decomposed into an international rate and a country risk component. We show that if exports respond negatively to the international interest rate or to an international recession, the aggregated consumption of the domestic economy is substantially more volatile than an economy where exports do not react. In other words, this paper finds a coherent explanation to the riddle when either industrialized countries are growing too fast or face a recession, developing countries suffer.

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