Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds

Abstract

Climate change communication is crucial to raising awareness and motivating action. In the context of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement, we argue that climate scientists should move away from point estimates and towards reporting probabilities. Reporting probabilities will provide policymakers with a range of possible outcomes and will allow them to make informed timely decisions. To achieve this goal, we propose a method to calculate the probability of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement. The method can be summarized as predicting future temperatures under different scenarios and calculating the number of possible outcomes that breach the limits as a proportion of the total number of outcomes. The probabilities can be computed for different time horizons and can be updated as new data become available. As an illustration, we performed a simulation study to investigate the probability of breaching the limits in a statistical model. Our results show that the probability of breaching the 1.5°C limit is already greater than zero for 2024. Moreover, the probability of breaching the limit is greater than 99% by 2042 if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Our methodology is simple to implement and can easily be extended to more complex models of the climate system. We encourage climate model developers to include the probabilities of breaching the limits in their reports.

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Download the working paper freely (open access) here.

But a much nicer looking version is available at the manuscript repository here. This version is done using Quarto and contains links to the code and data used in the paper.

Recommended citation

Text

Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo, and Olivia Kvist. 2024. “Breaching 1.5°C: Give Me the Odds.” arXiv, December. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2412.13855.

BibTex

@article{vera-valdés2024,
  author = {Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo and Kvist, Olivia},
  title = {Breaching {1.5°C:} {Give} Me the Odds},
  journal = {arXiv},
  date = {2024-12-17},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.13855},
  doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2412.13855},
}